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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still